Val d'Aran will predict avalanches with a system based on Artificial Intelligence

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Val d'Aran will predict avalanches with a system based on Artificial Intelligence

Published: Feb 18, 2025

The Aran Valley Avalanche Centre has a new prediction model based on Artificial Intelligence. This tool works with algorithms that process meteorological and snow depth data to make an objective and high-resolution prediction of avalanche danger.

This new system has been developed in Switzerland and has been tested using data from 20 years of “human” bulletins to achieve a performance of 70% , similar to the success and error of these, based on the collection of data from avalanche bulletins and direct observations, which bring artificial intelligence closer to the criteria of specialists in the field.

The weather conditions, due to the similar thickness of snow between Aran and Switzerland , make it possible to adapt this AI system in the territory. For Montse Bacardit, a specialist at the Avalanche Centre of the Conselh Generau d'Aran:

“These instruments, based on artificial intelligence and statistics, are fed with data extracted from automatic stations, in our case: Comalada and Sassèuva, and also from the Snowpack snow thickness model, which we have been implementing for some years now, to simulate in Nowcast (current moment) and Forecast (future), parametres that until now are estimated with expert criteria.”

Scientific research, in this case through artificial intelligence , and thanks to the solid experience of the technicians at the Aran Avalanche Centre, allows for an improvement in the quality of avalanche predictions that are published daily in public bulletins for all mountain users in winter.